Tyler Cowen has compared AI to the Gutenberg printing press, but this analogy doesn't quite capture the full scope of what we're witnessing. The introduction of GPT/LLMs and their accompanying technologies marks a Copernican revolution in our understanding of human intelligence and our place in the world.
While of course people are scared by the capabilities of AI, I think underlying it all is an even greater fear of identity. Similar to the shift from Copernicus/Galileo, AI dramatically changes our perception of what humans excel at and what our role on earth should be. What is the role of humans if we are no longer the best at many/most “intelligent” tasks? Getting better at many/most of these tasks is what many hundreds of millions of humans train their whole lives to do - its their job, its their identity, its how they define themselves… (This is especially true for professional commentators and Twitterati that expound on AI.)
In the documentary film about AlphaGo there is this moment where the AI finally defeats the world champion and you have this collective gasp from the commentators and the programmers. Everyone feels saddened after the best human in the world was defeated; it made me tear up when I watched it… There is this sense after that moment that the world will never be the same.
Seeing the latest advances from ChatGPT earlier this month gives the same feeling. It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that anyone studying at University should be questioning the value of what they are spending time learning. There is no doubt it’s just a matter of time until the LLM can outperform every intellectual profession.
Having a world-class doctor/ editor/ lawyer/ teacher in your pocket is now available to anyone that can pay $20/month. Maybe it’s not the best doctor/lawyer/teacher in the world, but most of the world isn’t New York City - to almost everyone in the world this would be an upgrade.
Combine this with the fact that GPT gets amplified by all the inventions from the last few decades (e.g.., Google, Wikipedia, Social media, digital financial markets, ubiquitous software, mobile phones, YouTube) and you get a recipe that is going to change every single industry around the world at once.
As an AI optimist I think we’ll come through the other side of this identity crisis. Most people in the world do not define themselves by their intelligence - while it’s something many pursue, other values, virtues and ambitions are more important. Faith and enlightenment; raising a family and forming a community; competing against other people; building new institutions, businesses and edifices… Ultimately there is more to life than being “smart” in the way we defined it in 2022, but this will be an enormous shift in our collective mindset.